Rationally Speaking #181 - William MacAskill on "Moral Uncertainty"
Rationally Speaking Podcast
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How to Maximize Expected Value
In a simple example, there are two possible outcomes. Speed and get to the destination faster, hit someone, let's say kill them. Decision theorists have formalized this using an ocean called expected utility theory. So for one action, you speed, that's a 99% chance of plus one. But it's also a 1% chance of minus a million. And that means that not driving has higher expected utility, expected value.
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