We like linear models ecause they're simple and bad. Extreme stan is that lenor. We gon o odds ar gong to come ofp with the wong model, ok? So your moral error increases in extreme istand. If i have an ice cube on the floor, and i ask you to predict, well, ows a, you know, little bit of a totle of wateris going to belike. You will probably come up with an idea of howa step to will look like when it melts. Sa, when it melts, exactly after it melts, ok. Now, if i show you water on the floor,. try tod figure out
Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.