TIVP030: PayPal (PYPL): Value Trap or Multibagger? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Navigating Payment Business Cycles
This chapter examines the impact of economic downturns on payment companies like PayPal, particularly during reduced transaction volumes. It also discusses the challenges posed by lower interest rates and explores strategies for investment while analyzing competition and product stickiness.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley dive into PayPal’s post-pandemic reset, tracing the fintech pioneer’s slide from market darling to value-story candidate. Once lifted by lockdown spending and eBay tailwinds, PayPal has seen its growth stall, its take-rate decline, and investors seem to have given up on it. In this episode, Shawn and Daniel unpack whether new CEO Alex Chriss’s “profitable growth” playbook, Fastlane one-click checkout, a margin-focused Braintree overhaul, and fresh bets on Ads and the PYUSD stablecoin, can restore momentum.
They also debate how realistic PayPal’s ambitious goals for the future are, what a sustained 6% share shrink via buybacks does for long-term EPS, how the new management team is incentivized, and whether PayPal’s consumer moat still matters in an Apple-Pay world.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro 04:38 - How PayPal became the No.1 payment provider and what the PayPal Mafia is. 09:47 - Why investors fell out of love with PayPal’s stock. 14:03 - What the next chapter under the new CEO will look like. 26:42 - Which new businesses could make PayPal dramatically more profitable? 33:31 - How the new strategy shows up in the numbers. 50:06 - Why the management incentive structure is a big benefit for shareholders. 51:36 - Whether stablecoins are bearish or bullish for PayPal. 01:01:11 - Whether PayPal is attractively valued at its current levels. 01:10:05 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add PYPL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
- Sign Up for The Intrinsic Value Community.
- Emerging Value Substack Article.
- Crossroad’s Interview with Alex Chriss.
- PayPal 2025 Investor Day.
- The Reservist Article on the Payment Industry.
- Jimmy Soni’s Book on The PayPal Mafia.
- Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Uber,Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, and Madison Square Garden Sports.
- Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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