How to Estimate the Probabilities of a Recession | 5min snip from Forward Guidance

The Fed Put Still Lives | Vincent Daniel

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

How to Estimate the Probabilities of a Recession

Vincent: How would you estimate this sort of macroeconomic probabilities about whether we have a recession, will we be a mild recession when we might enter that recession, mild or severe? Vinnie: I think the health of the consumer has always been something that dominates my thinking of the economy. Based upon that, it's hard for me to see a reflationary boom. The best we can do, and it might be decent for markets, is that we muddle along from an economic perspective for the next five, 10 years as we wrestle through our debt burdens. That's probably my base case scenario.

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