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The Fed Put Still Lives | Vincent Daniel
Forward Guidance
How to Estimate the Probabilities of a Recession
Vincent: How would you estimate this sort of macroeconomic probabilities about whether we have a recession, will we be a mild recession when we might enter that recession, mild or severe? Vinnie: I think the health of the consumer has always been something that dominates my thinking of the economy. Based upon that, it's hard for me to see a reflationary boom. The best we can do, and it might be decent for markets, is that we muddle along from an economic perspective for the next five, 10 years as we wrestle through our debt burdens. That's probably my base case scenario.
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