
Ep. 249 - The Sleeping Beauty Problem
The Local Maximum with Max Sklar
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Are You a Halfer?
The half versus thirder gives very different credence zones. A halfer will believe at any given time that they're woken up that it's a 75% chance it's a Monday, 25% chance it’s a Tuesday. So does that make sense if you are a halfer? I mean, then if you're a halfer in the million door scenario, you're going to place a very large close to 50% chance on Monday, I suppose, on day one.
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