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Is There an Equilibrium Rate?
In recent years, there has been a growing scepticism that some of these variables are really noable in real time. Having said that, i think the concept that there's an equilibrium rate isit is a good concept. Trying to get to a specific as to what that neutral rate is, that's the part i'd be careful about. And so ithink the concept that there’s probably some equilibrium rate, and that that equallibrium rate, because of aging demographics, i think i's been declining. That helps explain why the fed funds rate and other central banks around the world have had much lower interest rates than they have historically. It's because prospects for future