In the mining cartilist simulator, it survived only 27.25% of the time. The worst randomized outcome is you run out of money for about 3.25%. In the best case scenario, you'd have $15 million even after withdrawals.
In this episode we answer an email from Marcy. We discuss the modern and extended histories of the FIRE movement, FIRE movements and FIRE literature of the past from the 19th Century and beyond, the parallels of modern portfolio mistakes with those of FIRE circa 1990, and do a case study of Marcy's FIRE goals and portfolio using Portfolio Visualizer. (Errata -- I said "21%" for two allocations in the third portfolio when I meant 26%.)
And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.