Is There a 16 Year Gap?

The only way it could happen is if the AGI just decides it wants to take it slowly out of conservatism because it wants to minimize the risk of revising its own brain in a bad way. So I would say you could be there in 2026 or something like that is quite plausible. It really depends on how much effort humanity puts into achieving AGI, right? And we're trying to get there with it not trivial, but significantly less degree of funding, which means progress is not quite as fast.