Economist Noah Smith is the author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.

Far from worrying about human extinction from superintelligent AI, Noah is optimistic AI will create a world where humans still have plentiful, high-paying jobs!

In this debate, I stress-test his rosy outlook. Let’s see if Noah can instill us with more confidence about humanity’s rapidly approaching AI future.

Timestamps

00:00:00 - Episode Preview

00:01:41 - Introducing Noah Smith

00:03:19 - What’s Your P(Doom)™

00:04:40 - Good vs. Bad Transhumanist Outcomes

00:15:17 - Catastrophe vs. Total Extinction

00:17:15 - Mechanisms of Doom

00:27:16 - The AI Persuasion Risk

00:36:20 - Instrumental Convergence vs. Peace

00:53:08 - The “One AI” Breakout Scenario

01:01:18 - The “Stoner AI” Theory

01:08:49 - Importance of Reflective Stability

01:14:50 - Orthogonality & The Waymo Argument

01:21:18 - Comparative Advantage & Jobs

01:27:43 - Wealth Distribution & Robot Lords

01:34:34 - Supply Curves & Resource Constraints

01:43:38 - Policy of Reserving Human Resources

01:48:28 - Closing: The Case for Optimism

Links

Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog

“Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/plentiful-high-paying-jobs-in-the

“My thoughts on AI safety” — https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/my-thoughts-on-ai-safety

Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion

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Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - January 9th, 2026

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