Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration.
Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary
(17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory
(27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression
(39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly
(46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks?
(51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep?
(57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF)
(01:02:51) Energy
(01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market
(01:14:44) Brazil and Gold
(01:16:40) Favorite Books
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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