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6min chapter
Radical Uncertainty - Mervyn King
The Joe Walker Podcast
The Probability of a Pandemic
We should expect to be hit by an epidemic of an infectious disease resulting from a virus that does not yet exist but quantifying it doesn't really add anything and it can be very misleading the best example in some ways is what happened to President Obama when he had to make the decision about whether to send in the navy seals to capture Osama bin Laden. Radical uncertainty is much more than Nassim Taleb's Black Swans. The people who first went to Australia could not possibly know that there were black swans because the only swans they had ever seen were white so a swan in their view made absolutely no sense.
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