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THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Role of Prediction in Predicting Academic Performance
Study compared judgments made when evaluating evidence and predicting ultimate outcome. Participants treated two sets of questions as if they were the same. People are asked for a prediction, but they substitute an evaluation of the evidence without noticing that the question they answer is not the one they were asked. This process is guaranteed to generate predictions that are systematically biased. They completely ignore regression to the mean.
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