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166: Is science becoming less disruptive over time?

Everything Hertz

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Is It Figure Two of the Paper?

The average given paper is less disruptive than it used to be by some hypothetical measurement of disruption. But I think we may have forgotten about the fact that a lot of the speculation from 30, 40 years ago probably turned out to be bullshit. When's the last time you saw a really transformative modern paper where it was obvious that people had just fucked around in a room for three years and then produced something completely near? That still happens, Dan, but we call those startups now.

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