And we're back. And the House majority is in constant flux with recent resignations. But the math for Democrats is pretty simple. They need to net five seats to win the majority

this November. Mara, in the orbit of 2024, how competitive is this fight for the House? It's very competitive. I mean, Democrats could win back the majority. And the reason they could is that most of the battleground House seats are in districts that Biden won. The battleground for the House is different than the battleground for the White House. Those are swing states that can go either way. But for Democrats who are looking for pickups, there are, I think, 17 House races that are considered

toss-ups and are districts where Joe Biden won. I think that's a really good point to note that the terrain to winning the House majority runs very differently than a terrain does even for the Senate majority and certainly for the White House. I mean, Democrats are looking at competitive races in states like New York and California. So there's some new seats in the South that were created through new maps. I mean, places that aren't necessarily going to be overshadowed by and totally inundated by presidential campaigning.

Well, they're going to be

actually ignored completely.

Yeah. I mean, nobody's going to campaign in New York for the presidential election. So it's up to Democrats to fight for those seats. So they have a shot at this. I think it's going to be hard, especially depending on what happens at the top of the ticket. I don't think we've ever had a president win, a presidential candidate win and lose the House first party at the same time.

That is correct. Both chambers of Congress have never flipped to the other party at the same time in the same election. So there's a lot of weirdness

in the water in 2024. But that should be of no surprise to regular listeners of this podcast. The Senate has an excellent chance of flipping to Republicans. And the House has a pretty good chance of flipping to Democrats. And the White House is a toss up. So that is your 2024 election. But part of what I think is interesting, and we've talked about this before on the podcast,

is that the orbit of competitive races for the House just shrinks and shrinks and shrinks and shrinks. And I was looking at races today that are considered just pure toss-ups. No party has a clear advantage in it. It's just 22, maybe 24 seats in the whole House, Ma.

That's like 5 percent. It used to be 45 seats. And we thought that was incredibly small. Look, this is what gerrymandering will do. I mean, seats are safe for incumbents. You know, partisan gerrymandering is great for incumbents, bad for democracy. It means that members don't have to reach out to swing voters. They just have to worry about a primary challenge if they're a Democrat from the left, if they're a Republican from the right. And, you know, capitalism needs competition. So does politics. So does democracy. And there's very little competition. As you just said, there are very few competitive House seats. It also makes

you realize that regardless, like no matter which party wins the House in November, the chances of it being a pretty narrow majority are pretty good. Oh, yeah, definitely.

Although, you know, that brings up another really interesting point. We have had narrow majorities before and the Republicans seem uniquely terrible at governing with a narrow majority. Nancy Pelosi was a heck of a lot better at keeping her troops together when she had a very narrow majority.

Barbara, do you have a sense that, let's say, for the sake of argument, Republicans hold on to the majority? Would that make Mike Johnson more secure in his grip on the gavel? Or is this something that's just going to hang over him as long as he is Speaker of the House? Well, it very well might

hang over him as long as he's Speaker of the House, particularly if they do hold the House, but keep a very, very small majority. And I think that's a certainty that this type of thing could come up again. He was asked about this yesterday, and he said that he plans not only to be the Speaker of the House now, but to be the Speaker of the House after the election, if Republicans do keep the chamber. He says that's his priority at the moment, making sure that that happens. If it does happen, I think that we're likely to see the same players agitate for another speaker. This is something that like Green and Massey and others have already talked about. I think it's too early to know how that would shake out. But of course, the real person that he needs to keep his job is Trump. And, you know, there's a long time between now and November and what happens after November. And I think if he's looking at the crystal ball of what's to come, it's in large part has how does Trump reacting to his speakership? And how does that change come November?

Mara, no matter what happens in the House, Senate and White House, it seems pretty likely that the outcome of 2024 will still be divided government because of those different terrains that are being fought for the House and the Senate and the White House. You

can see a scenario where Trump, the Republicans keep the House, they flip the Senate and they get the White House. Sure. Yeah. I think that would be more of a red wave year that isn't yet clear. But I guess you're right. If Biden wins reelection, it's highly likely that he will not keep control of the Senate for his party.