Prediction Markets Are a Good Solution to Predicting the Future

tedlog: Is there a persuasive case that prediction markets are a good solution to this problem? John Sutter: I think the reason why so much like punditry is so bad is because people's incentives aren't properly alligned. He says predintion markets reward you for being correct, in an un flashy and unglamorous way. The market place of ideas also raises some interesting questions, he adds.