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"Why I think strong general AI is coming soon" by Porby

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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NVIDIA Is Pumping Out 3 GPT-3s Every Single Day

If Gugata soft wants 1000 GPT-3s, they'd have to buy about 10 months worth of NVIDIA's current production. It would cost 10 to 15 billion dollars. Google made around 70 billion dollars in revenue in quarter 2, 2022. Microsoft about 52 billion. The A100 has been out for a while now, and all that compute is being purchased by somebody. I'm still hand waving the engineering difficulty of wrangling that much compute,. but these companies are already extremely good at doing that  and are still improving rapidly.

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