The Gaucian's Self Referential Problem

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A had four other problems of almost equal magnitude that had nothing to do w gambling, that have nothing to do with being the casino sarbsara interrupted ou. You can use some classes of distributions to sort of er get a idea of your sensitivity to model error, but you cannot use them to make precise predictions. People thought, heo o use kao theory to build better models. No, if ca theory tells you something, it is that you cannot build models.

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.