The Bottoming of Inflation

I think the most important thing to figure out is are we at the beginning of a new secular inflation or was this big bit of inflation that we've just seen just transitory because it was the after after shock if you will from the pandemic. What energy prices do next is going to be the biggest determinant of what inflation does next. The risk still lies for an upside surprise and inflation when we look ahead to say 2024 2025 we'll see how the timing goes but basically the way I kind of think about it my concern is that because the fundamental drivers have not been fixed the next time we have a rising PMI or broadly some degree of economic acceleration I do think it's pretty likelihood