The AI Supercycle and Where We Are

Navin Chaddha, Managing Partner of Mayfield, has guided more than 80 companies to positive outcomes. During his venture capital career, Navin has invested in over 60 companies, of which 18 have gone public and 27 have been acquired. Creating $120B+ in equity value and over 40,000 jobs. Navin has been named to the Forbes Midas List 17 times (Top 5 in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024), becoming one of the most respected voices in venture capital.

Mayfield has $3B+ in AUM, 120 IPOs, and 225+ acquisitions.

In this episode of Sourcery, we cover:

• Why AI is a 100x opportunity vs. past tech shifts

• The collaborative intelligence stack from semiconductors to AI teammates

• The difference between real vs. vibe revenue

• Valuations, hype cycles, and Mayfield’s investment philosophy

5 Key Takeaways

• AI is a 100x wave – Unlike the PC, web, cloud, or mobile eras, AI combines conversational interfaces and reasoning/action, unlocking a truly global expansion of creators.

• Collaborative intelligence is the future – Humans + AI “teammates” will create a $3–6T market opportunity by augmenting knowledge workers

• Valuations are overheated – Billion-dollar seed rounds are unsustainable; Mayfield stays disciplined by aligning on founder–VC win-wins

• Revenue quality matters – Durable businesses need real customers, high margins, & repeatability; “vibe revenue” isn’t enough

• Entrepreneur traits beat ideas – Authenticity, teamwork, EQ, mission-orientation, & persistence are the most reliable signals for long-term success

1. Navin Chaddha: https://www.linkedin.com/in/navinchaddha/

2. Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠

3. Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc⁠

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Chapters:

(00:00) Navin’s 17x Midas List Journey

(02:06) What It Takes to Build a Winning Company

(03:00) Why AI Is a 100x Opportunity

(04:00) Conversational Interfaces & Machines That Act

(06:35) The Rise of the “Vibe Era”

(06:53) AI Supercycle: Early Days, High Valuations

(09:23) Billion-Dollar Seed Rounds & Valuation Concerns

(10:45) Mayfield’s Investment Philosophy & Win-Win Model

(13:42) AI Premiums in Fundraising (Carta & NVCA Data)

(18:06) Building the Collaborative Intelligence Stack

(20:40) Where Value Accrues Across Hardware, Models, Apps

(22:50) Business Models: Subscription → Consumption Based

(24:19) The Race to $100M Revenue: Hardware, Labs, Agents

(31:47) Real vs. Vibe Revenue (Margins, Repeatability)

(39:08) Founder Traits: Authenticity, EQ, Team Orientation