3min chapter

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours cover image

One: Holden Karnofsky on times philanthropy transformed the world & Open Phil's plan to do the same

Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours

CHAPTER

Is It Possible to Predict the Future 20 Years Out?

I think people do somewhat overestimate how futile it is to predict the future. We have a contractor working right now on looking back at a bunch of ten or 20 or 30 year predictions and scoring them according to whether they came true or false as predictions that were made decades ago. And so we'll see how that goes. But athing i say is, you know, you can't know the future, but it seems possible that you can be well celebrated about the future.

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