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Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Complexity Premia

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Ying Yi and the Global Inflation Crisis

The share of listed companies that don't have sufficient profits to pay the interest bill on their debts almost doubled in the US, UK, Europe and Australia over the last decade. The huge growth in high-yield issuance, private credit lending and crypto finance was perfectly fine for as long as credit default risks remain contained. Markets are not pricing in any possibility of a second phase through this monetary cycle. Investors wanted yield or the allure of super normal returns above near zero cash rates. Asset managers wanted to accumulate endless amounts of capital to lend. borrowers wanted crazy cheap money.

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