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EP 63: Mastering Megaprojects: A Chat with Prof Bent Flyvbjerg

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CHAPTER

How to Unpack Optimism

There are loads of other biases, including anchoring, availability bias, et cetera. Base rate neglect is very common. People don't understand what the odds are what they're doing. Once you have that piece of information, you have the base rate. Your base rate is a likelihood of 80% of failure. And if you are a smart person, you will think, how do I reduce that rate?

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