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Kahneman on ‘Noise,’ CHIPS Act, Great Salt Lake Dryness, Hybrid Toads. July 22, 2022, Part 2

Science Friday

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Over Confidence in Intuition

Most of us are over confident most of the time. We feel a sense of validity, and cannot imagine that other people looking at exactly the same situation would see it differently. For example, anybody who makes predictions about what will happen in the stock market is just deluding herself. And yet people feel that it is possible. They have intuitions, and they trust them. It's a big problem. I'm iraflito.

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