The Platt's Law World: How Experts Predict the Same Year

If you ask someone in 2016, they'll say it will happen in 2022. If you ask them in 2022, they'd say it will be 2028. This is a more useful framework than the naive model where forecasters simply consult their domain expertise and get the right answer. The mean advance on these milestones was about one year. But this was heavily influenced by three outliers shown as negative 29, negative 24 and negative 14 above. And it was over six years, the date that experts predicted we would achieve the milestones advanced three years. So we're about halfway between the perfect world where everyone predicts the same year regardless of when you ask them,. and the Platt's law world where