Psychological Biases in Investing: Bubbles and Reciprocity

On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses Charlie Munger’s legendary speech, The Psychology of Human Misjudgment, and unpacks all 25 of his cognitive biases that often lead even the most intelligent people to make poor decisions. Drawing from Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Kyle explores how these psychological tendencies—like incentive-caused bias, social proof, and inconsistency avoidance—can distort our thinking in business, investing, and everyday life. He blends Munger’s timeless wisdom with real-world investing examples, personal experiences, and practical strategies to help listeners make better, more rational decisions.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:02 - Why incentives quietly override moral behavior. 06:32 - Why liking and disliking an investing thesis can distort reality. 09:54 - Why doubt avoidance cause investors to take significant risks in things like IPOs. 12:07 - How inconsistency avoidance causes a lazy creep into our thinking processes. 24:38 - How to avoid the destructive effects of reciprocation. 32:49 - The dangers of overestimating our abilities. 37:44 - Why jumping off a sinking ship beats trying to patch it up. 45:58 - Why contrasting stock prices in exuberant markets evaporates margins of safety. 59:41 - Why investors should choose simplicity > complexity. 01:01:43 - Why you should search for Lollapalooza effects in business. And so much more!

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

• Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.
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