Expected Returns vs Historical Returns in Finance

Picture your investment portfolio as a carefully crafted puzzle and asset allocation as the key to solving it. It not only helps you navigate the treacherous waters of risk but fine-tunes your investments to harmonize perfectly with your financial dreams. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the art and science of portfolio management. Discover the intricacies of portfolio planning, execution, and maintenance as we dissect this critical aspect of wealth management. We unpack asset allocation with a focus on the stocks-to-bonds ratio, a crucial decision that balances the quest for maximum returns with the need for stability. We uncover the dangers of volatility and behavioural risks and explore strategies to safeguard your financial health. Tuning in, you’ll hear how assessing your risk tolerance and automating tasks can lead to a well-crafted portfolio (and why we suggest using a portfolio manager). We also guide you through the maze of asset allocation options and the vital steps for effective portfolio maintenance. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just beginning your financial journey, this episode will equip you with the knowledge you need to navigate the complexities of portfolio management with confidence, so be sure to tune in for expert insights, practical strategies, and actionable advice that will empower you to make informed decisions about your financial health!

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:03:55) Portfolio planning basics, an overview of risk, and the goal of asset allocation. 

(0:08:07) Unpacking the concept of ‘optimal portfolios’ and why it is not achievable. 

(0:14:13) Essential asset allocation aspects, the role of human capital, and strategies to manage risk. 

(0:20:41) Individualized job skills and their impact on asset allocation in the broader economy. 

(0:24:54) How social capital plays into asset allocation from an investment standpoint. 

(0:28:25) Risk expected return, correlation of assets in a portfolio, and the different types of risk that should be considered. 

(0:36:03) Using historical returns for forecasting expected returns and the nuanced ways that behaviour drives investment decisions. 

(1:04:04) Applying asset allocation principles to construct a diversified, market-efficient portfolio (plus some common pitfalls to avoid). 

(1:19:13) Trade-offs of a less volatile portfolio and a framework for risk tolerance calculation. 

(1:34:45) Fundamentals of good portfolio maintenance and how to protect your investments. 

(1:50:36) Navigating portfolio execution errors and the portfolio pyramid. 

(1:56:32) Closing comments and important takeaways from the episode. 

Links From Today’s Episode:

https://moneyscope.ca/2024/02/09/episode-7-portfolio-design-management/

Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ 

Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Dr. Mark Soth (The Loonie Doctor) — https://www.looniedoctor.ca/

Dr. Mark on X — https://twitter.com/LoonieDoctor

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 100: Professor Kenneth French — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 224: Professor Scott Cederburg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 258: Professor Meir Statman — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/258

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 260: Professor James Choi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/260

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 262: Professor Francisco Gomes — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/262

Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 263: A Tribute to Harry Markowitz — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/263

Morningstar | ‘Mind the Gap’ — https://www.morningstar.com/lp/mind-the-gap

‘Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3964908 

Vanguard Investor Questionnaire — https://investor.vanguard.com/tools-calculators/investor-questionnaire