Analyzing the Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on Markets

All eyes were on the Fed in the first half of 2024, but with core PCE holding steady and no rate cuts, how did the other parts of the economy and the markets fare? In this midyear episode, Schwab experts look ahead to the second half of 2024 to consider what investors might expect from the U.S. stock market, the global markets, and policy and politics in Washington D.C.

First, Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon discuss the current trends and bifurcations in the equity market. They highlight the significant spread between large-cap and small-cap performance, with the S&P 500® outperforming the Russell 2000. They also discuss the divergence within large-cap stocks, particularly in the growth trio of tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. The conversation emphasizes the concentration of performance in a small number of major drivers, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. They also touch on the bifurcation between index-level gains and weaker member-level performance in the NASDAQ. The conversation concludes by noting the relationship between market bifurcations and broader economic trends.

Next, Liz Ann interviews Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab's chief global strategist. Their conversation covers the global economic outlook, China's market performance, central bank policy, geopolitical risk, election risks, and asset allocation. Jeff discusses the recovery in the global manufacturing sector, China's stock market performance, central bank rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and the importance of international diversification.

Finally, Kathy Jones interviews Mike Townsend, Schwab's managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs and the host of the WashingtonWisepodcast. They discuss the legislative agenda for the second half of the year, the upcoming presidential election, the regulatory agenda, and the battle for control of Congress. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

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