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Putin's Attempt to Seize Suwaki Kordor in Ukraine
If Putin is partially successful in Ukraine, let's say he manages to seize Donbass and establish a corridor along the Black Sea coast. Then I would say that Moldo is probably toast. And he might be empowered given that Belarus hasn't been involved in the Ukraine conflicts to try and seize the Suwaki gap. If that happened, then it would be hard for NATO not to be involved because the countries that he would be attacking would be NATO countries. So if the West stays out of this conflict and expresses fear of escalation in this conflict, they're empowering Putin to try it on with a NATO country just to push the boundaries and just see what happens.