Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

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Navigating Probabilities in Predictions

This chapter delves into the complexities of assigning probabilities to predictions and its impact on critical thinking. It examines tools like the Elo model for sports predictions while addressing the challenges journalists face in articulating uncertainties accurately. The discussion emphasizes the necessity for precise language in conveying statistical probabilities to enhance public understanding and engagement.

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