Why Newsome Doesn't Have a Candidate Statement on the Local Ballot

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-my

[Original post here]

I know I don’t usually publish on Saturdays, but I wanted to get this out before people filled in their mail-in ballots. So:

Maximum Limelihood Estimator is concerned that Prop 31 (against flavored tobacco products) is meant to target vaping:

The flavored tobacco ban is mostly a ban on vaping; the vast majority of vape products are flavored, while most cigarettes aren't.

About 40% of cigarettes are flavored, compared to about 85% of vape juice. A study suggests that a ban on flavored tobacco would increase cigarette consumption (by making cigarettes relatively more desirable than vaping). Limelihood writes that “The statistics [in the study] are great, which is honestly shocking to me, since it's the first time I've said this about an experiment in . . . ever.”

There is also a study purporting to show that flavored cigarette bans do decrease smoking, but Limelihood says that:

…it's got some big problems. The study there only compares tobacco sales in a single city (San Francisco) before and after a ban on menthol cigarettes. However, because there's no comparison to other cities, it's essentially worthless; tobacco sales throughout the US dropped at this time, and I don't know how this compares.