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The Market Indicator Flashing ‘Recession’

The Breakdown

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Bond Market Flashes Recession Signal as Key Yield Gap Invertz

Two year yield briefly exceeded the ten t Tuesday for the first time since 20 19, inverting yet another segment of the treasury curve and reinforcing view that federal reserve rate increases may cause a recession. An inverted yield curve means that short term rates are higher than long term rates. It suggests that market actors have significantly diminished confidence in long term growth. The actual dynamics of the longer term yield falls are actually a bit more complex - it's about supply and demand.

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