Complexities of Social Change and Bottlenecks in Biology and Economics

The chapter discusses the challenges of modeling rare events like coups and civil wars, reflecting on the limitations of fitting chaotic real-world events into simplistic models. It also explores the concept of bottlenecks in biology, economics, and innovation, highlighting how arbitrary factors can have a profound impact on trajectories and shaping the future of species, companies, and technologies. The discussion extends to historical events and their influence on human society, juxtaposing the historical context of global stability versus modern global instability driven by rapid technological advancements.