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A Seasonal Surge (and its Implications for Jobs, Growth, Inflation and Rates)

Notes on the Week Ahead

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Introduction

Last month was the warmest January in Massachusetts since 1895, with a mean temperature 11.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average. The blockbuster 517,000 payroll employment gain for January was assisted to some extent by warm winter weather. Barring some cyclical collapse, January is always the weakest month of the year for employment. In the five years before the pandemic, not seasonally adjusted payroll employment fell by an average of 2.9 million jobs between December and January.

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