SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)
Top Traders Unplugged
Distribution-Based Regime Thinking
Richard and others advocate predicting distributional regimes over directions to choose appropriate trend models.
In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and recap of the year end roundtable format
02:05 - Introducing AI in systematic investing and total portfolio approaches
04:00 - Will TPA meaningfully increase allocations to CTAs or just rebrand 60/40
06:30 - Practical uses of AI in research, coding and client communication
08:50 - Process stability in changing regimes and the temptation to “fix” models after pain
12:00 - When, if ever, model changes are justified versus pure overfitting
16:00 - What really causes CTA drawdowns and why “nothing happening” is so costly
20:00 - Communicating long and shallow drawdowns to committees that want simple villains
24:00 - High volatility and leveraged trend products for the retail and ETF audience
28:00 - Capital efficiency, portable alpha and how higher rates change the game
32:00 - Is dispersion in CTAs healthy diversification or a barrier to broader adoption
36:30 - Outrageous predictions for 2026 in rates, equities, vol and trend following
41:00 - Final reflections, investor takeaways and invitation for listener questions
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