Longer-Term Outlook for U.S.-China Relations

On today's podcast:

1) President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to extend a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers in a landmark summit on Thursday, potentially stabilizing relations between the world’s biggest economies after months of turmoil. 
In the first sitdown between leaders since Trump’s return to the White House, the pair agreed China would pause sweeping controls on rare-earth magnets in exchange for what Beijing said was a US agreement to roll back an expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies. The US will also halve fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing resumes purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products. 

The US is also extending a pause on some of its so-called reciprocal tariffs on China “for an additional year,” the Commerce Ministry in Beijing said in a statement, adding that China “will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US side.” Trump said he would visit China next April, with Xi planning to head to the US afterward. Despite speculation that Trump might make additional concessions — including the US opening access to Nvidia Corp.’s most advanced Blackwell line or changing its policy toward Taiwan — the president indicated that those issues hadn’t been part of the discussions. Trump and Xi did discuss access to some of the chipmaker’s other products, however, with the US president saying he planned to speak with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

2) The largest technology companies are betting on an AI future powered by gigantic complexes of data centers filled with humming servers. Now that the staggering cost of this push is coming into sharper focus, it’s testing nerves on Wall Street. Three bellwethers from different corners of the technology world – Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. — together racked up some $78 billion in capital expenditures last quarter. That’s up 89% from a year earlier. Most of that cash was destined for data center construction and graphics processing units and other gear to fill them. Each increased their forecasts for future outlays. That was enough to rattle investors conditioned to expect enormous spending. 

3) Treasuries fell the most in nearly five months after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cast doubt on a December interest-rate cut, even as a sagging labor market prompted policymakers to bring down borrowing costs Wednesday. While the central bank delivered a widely expected reduction in the benchmark lending rate to 3.75%-4%, Powell’s hawkish outlook ruffled the $30 trillion US bond market. At his afternoon press conference, Powell said a further reduction in rates at the December meeting “is not a foregone conclusion,” sending yields across tenors up by the most since June. 

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