Navigating Midterm Elections: Political Strategies and Voter Sentiment

Chuck Todd starts with new polling showing Trump’s damaging down ballot effect on the Republican party and highlights some key races for the upcoming midterm elections.

Then, he sits down with New York Times reporters Michael Schwirtz and Jane Bradley to discuss their explosive investigation into Russia's sophisticated "spy factory" operation in Brazil. The reporters reveal how they uncovered a years-long Russian intelligence program that used Brazil as the perfect cover to create false identities for spies who would then be deployed around the world. The discussion explores how the Ukraine war may have intensified efforts to uncover these operations, and details the meticulous process Russian operatives used to obtain authentic Brazilian birth certificates and build elaborate backstories for their agents.

The conversation delves into the remarkable scope of this espionage network, including how one spy successfully infiltrated Johns Hopkins University as a student, before being caught by Brazilian authorities. Schwirtz and Bradley discuss the similarities between their real-world investigation and the plot of "The Americans," the complaints from captured spies about their Russian handlers, and how this program's roots trace back to Cold War tactics. The interview also touches on broader questions about American engagement in Latin America, Brazil's surprisingly robust rule of law, and the ongoing challenges facing international journalism, including reporting in conflict zones like Ukraine and the risks of travel to Russia.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment regarding small state primaries, whether an atheist could ever be elected president and Democratic messaging.

Timeline:

00:00 Introduction

01:30 Trump is putting the Republican party in a precarious position for midterms

03:30 Trump’s only big win is the border

04:00 Swing voters wanted lower prices and aren’t getting them

04:30 Every election is now a “change” election

06:30 Trump has become the party

08:00 Republicans won’t have anything that’s easy to sell to the public

09:30 New Texas poll shows Trump’s growing unpopularity

12:00 Shrinking the size of government is popular with voters

13:15 Bad economic approval is a warning for Republicans

16:00 Incumbency may be a big problem for John Cornyn

18:00 New Michigan poll released on senate race

19:30 Michigan poll shows anti-incumbent bias in voters

20:30 Lindsay Graham in a closer than expected race

22:15 Michael Schwirtz & Jane Bradley join the Chuck ToddCast! 

23:55 What is the origin story of their story on Brazil's "Spy Factory" 

24:45 Did the Ukraine war cause countries to double efforts to uncover spies? 

27:15 Were the feds in Brazil aware of this spy operation? 

30:25 Brazil was the perfect place to create cover identities for spies 

31:45 The spy operation was years in the making 

32:45 Investigations into spies' birth certificates showed they weren't doctored 

34:45 Other Latin American countries are investigating as well 

35:45 Was the spy ring uncovered in America in 2010 related to this program? 

37:15 The goal wasn't to infiltrate Brazil specifically, but move spies abroad 

38:15 The most "successful" spy was arrested by Brazilian authorities 

39:30 One spy infiltrated John Hopkins university posing as a student 

41:30 Has Putin punished any of the spies that were caught? 

43:15 It feels like this story was a plot ripped straight from "The Americans" 

44:30 The spies that talked complained about their bosses 

45:30 Does America run similar "spy factories?" 

48:15 Western agencies don't have the same spy budgets as the Russians 

50:15 The seeds of the spy program go back to the Cold War 

52:30 Are Brazilian authorities extra motivated to get to the bottom of this? 

53:45 Brazil's rule of law is stronger than we give it credit for 

55:15 Is this a failure of American engagement in Latin America? 

58:00 What other threads are they pulling in their investigation? 

1:00:00 When was Michael last in Ukraine? 

1:01:30 Does the Times still have reporters in Russia? 

1:02:45 Should Americans avoid travel to Russia? 

1:05:00 Does the espionage reporting beat make spy TV shows less watchable?

1:05:40 Chuck’s thoughts on interview

1:06:10 Ask Chuck

1:06:55 Why is America stuck with a first, single small state primary format?

1:09:00Will America ever elect a president that’s atheist or agnostic?

1:16:15 Why are Democrats so clueless at messaging?

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)