NOTE: This episode was recorded on Friday, September 20th, BEFORE polling on Monday, September 23rd indicated a bump for former President Donald Trump in the swing states; particularly in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a new poll by the New York Times and Siena College (that's how fast this stuff changes!)

On this episode: The end of last week saw a deluge of new polling updates from many of the major polling outlets, trying to capture the constantly evolving pulse of how Americans around the country say they’re planning to vote. This year, like every election cycle, extra attention is paid to those states that get designated as swing states – the closest contests that in most cases wind up deciding the eventual winner. According to most outlets, those states this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

First, we welcome Lakshya Jain from Split Ticket – a polling and election modeling outlet – for some insight into their most recent projections for these swing states, which they released on September 20th. Then, Ballotpedia's own Glorie Martinez joins the show to share some recent swing state history and how they've changed over the last twenty years.

Follow our presidential coverage: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2024

Read Split Ticket’s most recent presidential model: https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/20/our-2024-presidential-model/

Learn more about Ballotpedia’s perspective on polling: https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_approach_to_covering_polls

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Stream "On the Ballot" on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. If you have questions, comments, or love for BP, feel free to reach out at ontheballot@ballotpedia.org or on X (formerly Twitter) @Ballotpedia.

*On The Ballot is a conversational podcast featuring interviews with guests across the political spectrum. The views and opinions expressed by them are solely their own and are not representative of the views of the host or Ballotpedia as a whole.

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