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Powell Seems Intent On Overdoing It

The Rate Guy

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The Market's Belief in Fed Hikes

Odds of a hike July 26 are 72%. Odds of a hike in September, the next meeting, 11 and a half percent. The odds of Fed Fund being below 5% by year end are now just 6.6%. But as we sit right now, it appears that Powell is committed to overdoing it. Time is going to be what does it here; I'm not cutting until 2024. We're leaving them with 12-month tightening cycle. Can everybody just be a little patient and let's see how it goes? Instead of saying, "We've got to keep hiking," they should say, "Let's do more work"

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