Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
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The Future of Forecasting
i did a course in time serious forecastingin my undergraduate economics degree, and i think it's perhaps an underestimated thing to study. When you're dealing with tens of thousands of data sets, the advantages of smoothing the hing approaches become apparent because the bumps average out. The way theth current forecasting tournaments work, forecasters are incentivied for picking up on events that have rd between five and 95 per cent probability. We all have to be aware that we live in inner world that is subject to potentially radical volatility. Virtually virtually nobody soraily predicted World War II would be remotely close to how intense it would be. But if there will be enough people making enough predictions, there
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