The Black Swan - The Problem of Hindsight

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The use of data generally to make an empirical case is often enormously oversould. In both books, in e like one, i discuss something called a narrative fallacy. Basically, you can look at a series of events and invent a narrative that fits them. It looks brilliant, xante, visibly er but it doesn't works. So this is pretty much the problem of hindsight bias. And here i sayd that the black torn is a severe problem,. because people seem after the fact to think that they predicted the black sorn.

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.