Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Black Swans
EconTalk
00:00
The Black Swan - The Problem of Hindsight
The use of data generally to make an empirical case is often enormously oversould. In both books, in e like one, i discuss something called a narrative fallacy. Basically, you can look at a series of events and invent a narrative that fits them. It looks brilliant, xante, visibly er but it doesn't works. So this is pretty much the problem of hindsight bias. And here i sayd that the black torn is a severe problem,. because people seem after the fact to think that they predicted the black sorn.
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