Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
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The Outer Crowd Is More Accurate Than the Inner Crowd
Crowds get more accurate as crowdside increases. Outer crowds are much more effective than inner crowds. An inner crowd of size infinity performs about as well as an outer crowd of size 2. About 90% of outer crowd error can be removed by going from 1 to 10 people, going from 10 to infinity people only removes an additional 10%. The best fit is with a hyperbolic function. And outer crowds seem to approach approximately zero error as crowdside equals infinity.
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