The Importance of Early Indicators and Preemptive Measures

This chapter emphasizes the need to use early indicators, such as the Psalm rule and the rise in unemployment rate, to predict recessions and take preemptive measures. It discusses the limitations of aggregate economic data and highlights the importance of considering the distribution of data to reveal significant differences among various groups. The chapter also addresses the impact of the COVID-19 recovery on different income groups in the United States.