Will Perception Fuel Regional Proliferation?

On September 17th, 2025, the world witnessed what might either turn out to be the most consequential defence agreement since NATO's founding, or might fizzle out as something that's not as disruptive as it might seem. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia didn't just sign a mutual defence pact - they potentially rewrote the rules of nuclear deterrence, economic diplomacy, and regional power projection in one stroke.

For the first time in history, a nuclear-armed state has formally pledged its atomic arsenal to defend a non-nuclear oil superpower. But this isn't just about military hardware or traditional alliances. We're looking at the birth of "nuclear arbitrage" - where atomic weapons become a tradeable commodity. We're seeing the emergence of what we might call "reverse petrodollars" - where military assets back financial flows instead of oil.

The implications cascade far beyond the Middle East. India's multi-billion economic partnership with Saudi Arabia now sits uncomfortably alongside Riyadh's new nuclear patron. China's Belt and Road investments suddenly have Pakistani nuclear protection. Iran faces the prospect of a Sunni nuclear umbrella stretching from Islamabad to the Arabian Peninsula.

Today, we're asking the questions that traditional geopolitical analysis misses: What happens when sovereign wealth funds start buying military power directly? Can the nuclear non-proliferation regime survive when deterrence becomes a rental service? And are we witnessing the birth of the world's first religiously-defined nuclear blocs?

This isn't just another defence deal. This is the moment when 20th-century assumptions about money, military power, and atomic weapons collided with 21st-century realities. Welcome to the new great game.

Join Yusuf Unjhawala and Arindam Goswami as we discuss all this and more in this episode of the All Things Policy podcast.

All Things Policy is a daily podcast on public policy brought to you by the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru.

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