Introduction

Inflation in the US has proved remarkably stubborn. The most recent figures show it fell less than expected in January, to 3.1 percent, well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2 percent. In response, the futures markets slashed their expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates any time soon from its current level of 5.25-5.5 percent. The labor market is still relatively tight, and consumers keep spending. Many observers think a recession is increasingly unlikely, but a soft landing is hardly guaranteed. In this episode, Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago from 2007 to 2023, and Chicago Booth’s Anil Kashyap, discuss how the Fed is thinking about the US economy.