Taiwan Risk Is Overstated

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing.

Topics covered in this episode:
• Why Western investors misread China’s economy
• China’s response to the US semiconductor embargo
• How China redirected all lending toward industry
• The scale and speed of China’s move up the value chain
• China’s EV dominance and the BYD vs. Tesla comparison
• The new global deflation and reflation forces
• Why China now looks like the US did in 2009
• Energy, labor, and industrial competitiveness
• China’s open-source AI approach vs. America’s closed systems
• “Hunger Games” capitalism and the impact on investors
• Where foreign investors consistently get China wrong
• The RMB as the most mispriced major asset
• How China’s demographics shape policy and markets
• Why fears of a Taiwan conflict are overblown
• How Louis is positioning for China’s next bull market

Timestamps:
00:00 China’s economic shock and the US semiconductor embargo
02:00 What the West gets wrong about China
04:00 Competition, local governments, and industrial incentives
06:10 China’s lending shift: real estate to industry
08:00 China’s rapid climb up the value chain
10:00 BYD vs Tesla and China’s engineering surge
12:30 The global deflationary shock and US–China tensions
15:00 From defense to offense: China’s policy pivot
17:00 China’s reflation and emerging market implications
18:20 Scarcity of energy, labor, and time
21:00 China’s cost advantages vs the US
24:00 Comparing AI strategies: open vs closed systems
28:00 “Hunger Games” capitalism in China
31:30 Investing challenges and opportunities in China
34:00 China’s new high-tech niche champions
37:00 Capital-light Chinese AI vs US capital intensity
40:30 Rethinking US-China blocs and global alliances
44:00 Why Europe will be torn apart by the next phase
45:30 Will China outperform the US over the next decade?
47:00 The massively undervalued RMB
49:00 China’s barbell investment setup
50:00 China’s demographic crisis and policy response
53:00 Taiwan risk: myth vs reality
58:00 How Louis could be wrong
01:00:40 Louis’s contrarian investing belief
01:02:00 Louis’s one lesson for investors