Is the US Recession Coming Through?

There are so many secular forces that are pointing in favor of higher inflation. China is no longer a cap on wage growth in developed markets. You also have faster credit growth and both of those things are inflationary. So leaning against that means you're kind of accepting this politically unacceptable idea of a much higher unemployment rate to get inflation back down again. We're very much looking out for that US recession coming through because that's the kind of the key turning point for the Fed but it doesn't seem like we're quite there yet.