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Julia Galef | How to Stop Deluding Ourselves

Good Life Project

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Is There a Right Probability?

In the real world, very often you just don't have that data to be able to ocli. Even if you're trying to be rational about it, how close can i get to actually making a good decision based on these estimates? The data that you put it is such a wild guess a that i's hard to get close to the point where you're not deluding yourself. It's an expression of how confident you feel you can be in the truth, or in what's going to happen.

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