Introduction

The joint intelligence committee, j i c, is one of the longest serving whitehall committees. Its origins can be traced back to the decision in 19 36 to remedy the lack of co ordination within the secret world. In this brief paper, i would like to look at the british experience in producing intelligence assessments of the russian leadership during the cold war. It will focus on the difficulties in trying to pro use assessments when intelligence is limited and where the analytical paradime is that those in the kremlin are irrational actors. Yet to provide an assessment on future intentions, it is necessary to assume a certain level of rationality. The paper will also fo on the balance between assessing intentions and