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AAII Orange County Chapter Q & A

Sound Investing

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The Probability of a Drawdown in a Month

A lot of people are making decisions based on periods of time that would not include these catastrophic events. How different would this look if you look just at since 1970? Generally, the drawdowns would probably be about two thirds of the size and the safe withdrawal rates would probably be a half a percent or more greater. And like I said, the likelihood of your experiencing the 80 percent drawdowns shown here is roughly .1 percent in, you know, in a given month.

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