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This is going to be graph heavy. All of the graphs in this presentation are conceptual, except for the nuclear war impact on climate and the IPCC climate projections. Start with yourself. What does your city look like in the year 2050 or 2100? What is the temperature and the environmental future going to be in the deep future? We have discrete views on this, ranging from a very specific thing to, I have no idea, I just want to pay this month's bills. But the point is there will be a reality for your city, for your region, for the planet in the future.

Recorded April 10, 2023

Description

In this Frankly, Nate explains how he views the future from a probability perspective - a tool frequently used in industries such as finance, retirement planning, and by e.g. gamblers. While there will be only one eventual outcome, the possible paths to that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. We can shift these results with our actions in the present. However, no one person can know this distribution perfectly, only the distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards during a Simplification.

To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/uWn2svl6aBU

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/29-reality-probability-and-perception